Yar'Adua: Ramping Up The Pace Of Governance
By Franklin Otorofani
Those who spare
some time for politics in the United States are probably
conversant with the term "Lame duck" in relation to the
perceived effectiveness or otherwise of an outgoing
President or Congress, as the case may be, that has
negotiated the usually treacherous political bend in
midterm elections, for the homeward stretch.
Though invariably applied to politics nowadays my
research shows the phrase was coined in England in the
18th Century at the London Stock Exchange and was first
used by Horace Walpole in a letter of 1761.
"Lame duck" was coined to refer to a broker who
defaulted in his debts and had nothing to do with
politics, least of all the American presidency, or
Congress, neither of which was in existence at the time.
However, since the 22nd Amendment of the United States
Constitution that introduced term limits of two terms
for the American presidency, any president of the United
States elected for a second term of office,
automatically acquires the character of a lame duck,
although, fresh from a victorious election, and
therefore full of hubris, the second term president may
not at first appear as a lame duck at the beginning of
the second term.
But by the mid term of the second term of four years,
it's almost impossible for an American president to
escape the fate of a lame duck president, defined by the
loss of political power and influence to get things done
in the implementation of his second term agenda. All
second term presidents have suffered this fate and the
current one,President Bush, though fighting to shrug off
the effects, has effectively entered the lame duck phase
of his presidency such that no one listens to him now,
not even his party men. He is, effectively on his own,
so to speak!
That is the cruel fate that befalls second presidents.
It's the most unwelcome phase of any presidency when the
president loses his grip and charm, on his party and the
electorate, and attention naturally is shifted to his
successor with the cold political calculations that go
with it in the succeeding general elections when members
of congress due for re-election are eager to chart their
own individual political courses, carefully tailored to
the needs and aspirations of their respective
constituencies, rather than pursuing the agenda of a
lame duck president, unless of course, such agenda
dovetails into theirs
politically, that is.
The stinging defeat of President Bush's Immigration Bill
that he had staked his all, in the hands of his own
party men, is attributable to the lame duck phenomenon
and that's why US Presidents try to get as much
accomplished as possible in their first terms as the
second is all but a waste or merely ceremonial
tenureship, more or less to validate their first term
popularity and thus have their party retain power. Prime
Minister Tony Blair of Britain had been afflicted with
this disease long time ago hence his reluctance to
indicate his exit date long before now so as not to
precipitate a downward spiral in his popularity and
influence, until he dramatically made the announcement
last month.
In Nigeria, the lame duck disease has not caught on as
yet largely because the nation has not been long enough
on the democratic track to assess its overall effects on
the Nigerian presidency. Yet, there is no reason to
expect any less effects in Nigeria than as in other
democracies in other parts of the world.
As pointed out earlier, the lame duck disease that
renders a leader powerless, is present and more
pronounced in democratic systems with term limits, but
it's also present in those without term limits as, for
example, in democracies in Europe where a Prime Minister
or President, as the case may be, could run as many
times for office as allowed by the electorate in general
elections. It happens in those systems when, for
instance, a second, third, or fourth term Prime
Minister, as for example, Prime Minister Tony Blair of
Britain cited above, gives notice that he will not go
for re-election for the next term. Once a prime minister
or president, as the case may be, is on his way out, the
lame duck condition immediately sets in and he loses
political power and influence. From that point onward
his rule is all but over and remains a lame duck
throughout the remaining part of his tenure unable get
his measures passed in parliament or Congress. It's
reason why Tony Blair threw in the towel before he
became a liability for his party and the nation.
And it's probably the reason too why Obasanjo did not
prosecute the third term agenda as vigorously as he
should have and immediately threw in the towel once the
Bill was killed in the senate. For all I care, he was
probably even privy to the demise of that bill itself
given his calm reaction to its death on the floor of the
senate. Otherwise why would even the sponsors of the
bill allegedly working hand in gloves with the
presidency, vote to suspend the proceedings? Why would
the promoters of third term vote against the further
reading of the Bill on the floor of the senate? Then
Senate President Ken Nnanmi was reported to have
expressed surprise when the ardent promoters of the Bill
were called upon to vote and one after another they
raised up their hands to vote "No!"
My thesis therefore is that Obasanjo had a hand in
killing third term otherwise he would have rammed in the
constitutional amendments and damned the consequencies.
After all he was called a dictator by some louts, so why
not do as dictators do? Ram through an amendment like
the socialist President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela now in
his fourth term after engineering a constitutional
amendment, and on his way to making himself life
president of Venezuela! There is nothing anybody can do
about it, not even George Bush! Someday the truth will
be revealed in Nigeria when the story of third term is
written in full.
However, President Olusegun Obasanjo was able to escape
the fate of lame duck presidency even though Nigerians
had long developed fatigue for the Obasanjo
administration. How Obasanjo was able to pull that one
out when his counterparts in Washington and London have
been demobilized by the lame duck condition, is for
presidential historians to unravel.
However, I am willing to harzard a guess: Obasanjo's
hold on his party and the instruments of power were
largely responsible for his effectiveness in his last
days in office, coupled of course, with the general
belief in Nigeria that an incumbent, whether a governor,
or president, is a veritable kingmaker, who must be
courted to endorse and bless the political ambitions of
political upstarts looking for political godfathers to
carry them on their wings. Thus, with such enormous
powers concentrated in the Nigerian presidency, it would
take a while for the lame duck disease to rear its ugly
head in Aso Rock!
That said, it's one thing to have such enormous powers
vested in the office of the president and quite another
for the holder of that office to exercise such powers
decisively to ward off the approach of a lame duck
condition. While Obasanjo wielded, enjoyed, and
exercised power to the hilt, for good or bad, depending
on the side of the divide one belongs, former Nigerian
President Shehu Shagari was of a different hue. He was
basically an absentee President, not unlike Ronald
Reagan, in his second term.
Shehu Shagari had enormous presidential powers he would
not and could not exercise but allowed others to
excercise them for him. Unlike President Obasanjo who
personalized power, Shehu Shagari would delegate his
authority to subbordinates and allowed his aides to a
free reign to do as they wished. The results were the
bazaars that was the Shagari administration when
ministers were landing their newly acquired glittering
private jets at our public airfields without question.
Under the Shagari administration corruption walked on
four legs in our streets, unchallenged, and even,
worshipped by praise singers!
It's morning yet, but they say the morning tells the
day. I am sufficiently disturbed that President Yar'Adua
seems to be adopting the Shehu Shagari style of absentee
presidency. For purpose of clarity an absentee president
is one who delegates executive powers to his aides while
he lays back and stays at the background. Such
presidents are rarely seen or heard in public while
their garrulous aides bestride the political landscape
like a collosuses, bearing down on lesser mortals.
It was Shagari's aides that deported a full blooded
Nigerian, one Alhaji Abdulraman Shugaba, to the Republic
of Niger, for allegedly not been a Nigerian! No
questions asked by the President. President Shagari
loved his cigarrette so much he couldn't be bothered
about the deportation of a pesky GNPP fry if his aides
wanted him out. And, so Shugaba was seized by security
operatives and bundled out of Nigeria and dumped across
the Niger border in the dead of night! It was the UPN
that fought on his behalf to overturn the decision of
the Federal Government.
Umaru Dikko, for instance, became the altar ego of Shehu
Shagari, as he was nicknamed the super minister. It was
Umaru Dikko that reminded us that Nigerians were not
feeding from trash bins in the streets as yet, therefore
there was no hunger in the land. And, to rub it in, he
or was it another Shagari, minister, John Shagaya, told
Nigerians that telephones were not for the poor! Well
Obasanjo has turned the Dikko or Shagaya dictum on his
head and telephones are now not only for the poor in
Nigeria, but for the powerless as well!
Umaru Dikko was more powerful than Alex Ekwueme,
Shagari's Vice-President. In this dispensation, Babagana
Kingibe, the Chief of Staff is on course to playing the
Umaru Dikko of Yar'Adua, at least for now, pending the
appointment of substantive ministers, but I don't see
much change in the horizon regardless. Kingibe is both
the Chief of Staff and the Yar'Adua number one political
operative, very much like Tony Anenih. The difference,
however, is that while Obasanjo had the guts to call any
of his aides to order, it's doubtful if Yar'Adua has the
guts to do likewise, otherwise he wouldn't be pushed
around the way Arewa is doing now at the moment. It
appears Arewa is setting Yar'Adua's political agenda to
Northernize his government and that is a red flag for
the nation right there!
Yes, it's morning yet, but the morning tells the day.
So, when will Yar'Adua's government get off the ground?
When will ministers be named? The truth is no one knows!
Almost three weeks after Yar'Adua's inauguration, he has
been long on rhetorics but short on action.
A presidential candidate who told the world during
electioneering that he would declare a state of
emergency in the power sector as soon as he assumed
office has suddenly gone cold on this hot botton issue.
Beyond assembling some civil servants together for a tea
party in Abuja to tell them to get their acts together,
Yar'Adua has failed to deliver on his first, and most
important commitment. And, if truly the morning tells
the day, Nigerians are not about to enjoy the fruits of
democracy under the Yar'Adua administration anytime
soon, and this is a cause for concern.
In modern democracies, the first 100 days have become
the benchark for assessing the performance of a new
leader. And, recently Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the
US House of Representatives, even upped the ante by
further reducing the period to the first 100 hours to
accomplish her clearly defined legislative agenda, as a
true, tested, and competent leader, should. And, as soon
as she was sworn in she hit the ground running and,
pronto, the bills started flying out of the US Congress
in no time: Minimum Wage, Iraqi War Funding,
Immigration, and so on!
These timeframes have become part of public expectations
from a newly sworn in leader. President Bush wasted no
time after Clinton in getting his agenda rolling. He
just couldn't wait to roll with presidential power even
though his election was just as contentious as
Yar'Adua's. Obasanjo hit the ground running in less than
60 days after assuming power by sending bills to the
National Assembly, including the NDDC, EFCC & ICPC
Bills, and kicking out military politicians from
service. He tackled fuel scarcity headon and
restructured the presidency, besides constituting his
cabinet. That ensured the taming of the military threat
to his administration.
In sharp contrast, President Yar'Adua is dithering while
busy playing the ethnic card at the same time in the
skewed appointment of security service chiefs in favor
of the North, without even maintaining the geographical
balance in such appointments as bequeathed to him by his
predecessor.
A newbreed president of the 21st century ought to be
able to do better in the department of geo-ethnic
balancing in order to actively promote a sense of
belonging and avoid feeling of alienation and
marginalisation. After all that is the raison detre of
the zoning formula as sold to Nigerians. And while PDP
as a party has striven to do just that as a deliberate
policy in its zoning formula, the Yar'Adua government is
yet to reflect that cardinal principle of federal
character in his appointments so far.
Afenifere and certain Igbo groups have raised alarm over
this ugly development and had sought an immediate
correction of the lopsided appointments in favor of the
North, Yar'Adua's own geopolitical zone.
Yar'Adua has thus put his wrong foot forward in these
early appointments and that is not a very good sign by
any stretch. He has by these skewed appointments
ressurrected the feared ghosts of Northern political
hegemony, which was and still the basis for the violent
political agitations in the land with some of them even
verging on succession, as for example, with the OPC,
MASSOB, and MEND. Niger Delta is boiling because of that
and the nation is getting bad international press aside
the huge losses in oil revenues, including even the
sabotage of pipeline gas transmission to power stations.
Whoever, advised Yar'Adua to Northernize his
administration this early in the day has only succeeded
in creating political liability for him that is bound to
destroy the little goodwill he has been able to garner
amongst Nigerians until now. A newbreed President must
and should never be seen to play the ethnic card in this
day and age in Nigeria. Yar'Adua has thus betrayed the
youths of the country who wanted a break with the past
when they chose a youthful leader and supposedly
detribalized, and apparently untainted candidate, to
lead the way.
Anyone who wants Yar'Adua to succeed in office should
remind him now that he is no more the Governor of
Katsina state catering to a homogenous tribal clan in
Katsina state but to an infinitely variegated,
multifarous, geo-ethnic mix at the national level, that
needs to be constantly assured and reassured of their
place in the union, not only in federal appointments but
also in the distribution of government patronages at all
times.
That is the whole essence of the principle of federal
character enshrined in our constitution. It's one of the
directive principles of the constitution and therefore a
constitutional imperative that must be observed and
adhered to at all times by any and every administration
at the federal level.
Obasanjo played that card so well in his appointments as
a statesman and thus to his eternal credit, remained a
detribalized leader throughout his stewardship. Yar'Adua
must move Nigeria forward by improving on that legacy
instead of returning Nigeria to an ethnic cocoon.
But there is a more worrying development creeping in
that has been picked up by my political antenna. It's
the dreaded disease of lame duck presidency. While the
condition is, as explained above, normally shows its
hand in midterms of second term presidents, it's
emergence is by no means time specific. The political
disease could strike anytime during a president's
tenure, whether it's first or second term. It all depend
on the strength of character and effectiveness of the
power holder.
Is President Shehu Yar'Adua a budding lame duck
President? It's too early to tell but, again, the
morning tells the day.
Taking cues from his declarative statements, many a
commentator, including this writer, had sought to
project a wholesome, edifying, era in the Yar'Adua
presidency, and there are good reasons for that. He is
youthful, supposedly detribalized, former governor with
good record of financial prudence and accountability;
first university graduate and lecturer to lead the
nation, and a thorough bred civilian, who, as he himself
put it, would be a "servant leader." It's morning yet,
and if the morning tells the day, Yar'Adua has gotten
off to a disappointingly, even embarrasingly, slow
start, contrary to justified public expectations.
Rather than hit the ground running President Yar'Adua
has allowed himself to be bogged down by the opposition
and he has pre-occupied himself with the implementation
of what apppears to be a policy of appeasement of the
opposition. He is now being blackmailed by the
opposition.
If there is anyone in the land that deserves to be
appeased, it's not Atiku and Buhari, neither the AC nor
ANPP, but the Ogonis, Niger Deltans, and the Igbos, who
have seen the face of injustice and drunk its hemlock,
in the scheme of things in their own country. They are
the ones that deserve wholesome appeasement, not
Yar'Adua's kinsmen in the North dying for power, through
blackmail.
Again, this is turning out to be yet another variant of
the incipient policy of northernization of the Yar'Adua
government. Obasanjo's election in 1999 was no less
contentious as Yar'Adua, but Obasanjo never went out of
his way to appease the Afenifere, the Yorubas, or for
that matter, Olu Falae, who had gone to court just as
Buhari and Atiku have done, seeking to invalidate and
nullify his presidency and kick him out of Aso Rock.
In fact, it's on record that the Afenifere hated
Obasanjo throughout his administration and sought to
undo him every step of the way. Now, contrast that with
Yar'Adua cozying up to Arewa, and seeking to implement a
policy of appeasement for his Northern brothers, in the
name of carrying the opposition along. Carry which
opposition along? They don't need to be carried along,
they need to be left behind to teach them a lesson!
And, if this goes on the end result would be Atiku and
Buhari determining the composition and character of the
Yar'Adua government, rather than Obasanjo who put him in
power, or the PDP, for that matter, on which back he
rode to power. And your guess is as good as mine as to
what it would be like.
I do not mean to disparage the North, but why does it
seem so difficult for Northern leaders, even a youthful
one like Yar'Adua, for that matter, to rise above
ethnicity, for Christ sake?
In pandering to hegemonistic interests of the North,
Yar'Adua government has refused to take off of the
ground. Nothing is happening at the political front and
nothing is hapening in the economic front, either,
despite those grand declarations of taking Nigeria to
the promised land by the year 20/20 when Nigeria will be
among the 20 largest economies in the world as
envisioned by his party the PDP.
When will Yar'Adua start driving the reforms? When will
he declare power emergency? When will he start to
implement his 7-point agenda? Your guess is as good as
mine. As at the time of writing this piece, he has not
even nominated a single minister or aide talk less of
driving the reforms! And, here is a man who had two
whole weeks after his election, and was given every
opportunity by his mentor, President Obasanjo, to
understudy the government and prepare for national
leadership, and hit the ground running. A president
taking over from a hostile predecessor could not have
had all those briefings and an a temporary office in
Aguda House to function as president even before he was
sworn in as president! Yar'Adua thus had every
opportunity to get his acts together before the actual
handover, yet his government has simply refused to fly
three weeks after his inauguration! Not even the Niger
Delta issue, the festering sore in our body politic, has
been addressed.
Two things are responsible for the rather lackadaisical
and uninspiring pace of the Yar'Adua administration:
(1) He has inherited the policies of his mentor,
President Obasanjo, adopted by the PDP, therefore, he
sees no need to put in place something else. That would
explain why there is no apparent movement in the areas
of policy formulation and implementation because the
policies are already in place. Be that as it may, even
though President Obasanjo drove those policies with
single minded determination at the expense of his
popularity, those policies need to be throttled even
harder and harder to get the desired results, more so as
we are already in the home stretch ready for the home
run! The ship of state has set sail, but our nautical
cruise speed must be increased to hit our destination
faster.
Although much has been achieved already there are many
areas of those policy framework that are yet to register
any appreciable results, for instance, the power sector,
where Yar'Adua himself had threatened to declare a state
of emergency as so as he was sworn in. Well, that has
not happened. What about the reforms in the educational
sector? No word yet, all because there is as yet, no
government in place.
Even if he has nothing to add to those policies, they
should be restated in a bold, major declarative
statements and appropriate committees set up to drive
those policies with pre-determined timeframes and
benchmarks, if we are to achieve the goal of being one
of the 20 most industrialised nation by the year 20/20.
Put another way, he should breathe a new life into those
policies and explain their benefits to the Nigerians,
not in Obasanjoist way but in his own Yar'Aduan way.
Many Nigerians were and still resistant to those
policies not because they are not good enough but
because of Obasanjo's brusque style of governance. He
should put his stamp on those policies and recast them
in his own image. The problem at the moment, however, is
that Yar'Adu's presidential train has refused to leave
the station and his presidential plane has refused to
take off either, both tarrying endlessly for late
passengers to board after his policy of appeasement
might have yielded fruits while Nigerians wait endlessly
for action. This is what I call a Betrayal of
Expectations!
(2) The opposition, as represented by Buhari and Atiku,
respectively on behalf of their parties, the ANPP and
the AC, has practically held President Yar'Adua hostage
in Aso Rock!
He has been holed up in Aso Rock as a prisoner of
special interests leaving Nigerians who put him in power
in the lurch. That's right, Yar'Adua is busy cutting
deals, not with Nigerians who voted him into office, but
with the opportunistic, power hungry, and totally
unprincipled, bankrupt members of the opposition, who
had wished him dead during the campaigns. What an irony!
Unlike President Obasanjo, when Buhari or Atiku coughs,
Yar'Adua freezes; an 180 degree constrast with Obasanjo
who would dare them to even cough, in the first place!
And, this is one of the reasons why I had preferred an
ex-military leader like Ukiwe, Marwa, Akhigbe, or any
other one to succeed Obasanjo, rather than another Shehu
Shagari, but the PDP zoning arrangement changed all that
coupled with the fact that Nigerians were rooting for an
out and out civilian.
Well, they got one now, and he freezes when the
opposition coughs! He is sending emissaries everywhere
in the dead of night, to beg Buhari and Atiku and
secretly cutting deals with their parties, for what I
know not.
Yar'Adua has no reason to be afraid of Atiku or Buhari.
No reason at all. The worst case scenario is for another
presidential election to be held but that's not going to
happen, and he can take that to the bank.
The most that could come out of their cases at the
Tribunal is for the nullification of the results in one
or two states as happened in Ogun state in the 2003
presidential election. And, if that happens, how would
that affect his presidency, for God's sake?
Now, here is a Buhari who had dismissed going to the
tribunal to seek redress out of hand after Yar'Adua was
declared winner, and here was his party, the ANPP,
overidding his decision and had vowed to pursue the
case. Isn't amusing that Buhari is now the one refusing
to quit the case, and ANPP is now the party cutting
deals with Yar'Adua for a so called unity government,
behind Buhari? How can Yar'Adua cut deals with ANPP and
AC when Atiku and Buhari, the aggrieved candidates, are
still breathing fire? Does that make sense to anyone?
Yar'Adua must be told that he has a mandate to govern
and govern at an acceptable pace and not cutting deals
with the opposition while Nigerians wait endlessly for
presidential action to ameliorate their conditions. The
presidential systems of government is one of winners
take all, and therefore, has no room for so-called unity
government. That stuff is for parliamentary and not for
the presidential system of government we operate.
Yar'Adua should get his constitutional perspectives
right. The opposition must remain in opposition and
checkmate the government in power rather than fighting
to be included in so-called unity government for the
implementation of PDP programmes they had no hands in
formulating. I had earlier on, in one of my previous
write ups, predicted that Nigeria would end up with a
one-party system by default because of the unprincipled
and bankrupt opposition we have in Nigeria.
Rather than use the results of the last election to
built a formidable all inclusive opposition platform
preparatory to the next election since they failed to do
that in the last elections, the opposition is only
interested in being in power for the spoils of office
rather than winning power on the strength of their own
programmes and efforts. In the end it would be swallowed
up by the ruling party and they will turn around to
blame the PDP!
Yar'Adua should ignore them totally. He has to do the
people's business for which he was elected and
concentrate on governance at an acceptable pace. The
opposition politicians seeking to overturn his election
will sooner rather than later, burn themselves out at
the tribunals as they did during Obasanjo's tenure.
Whether anyone likes it not, he has secured a valid and
subsisting mandate to govern for the next four years,
and until that mandate is invalidated, which is not
going to happen, as already stated, he has nothing to
worry about and shouldn't feel unduly threatened by
Atiku and Buhari's tribunal cases.
Obasanjo had more cases than that threatening his
position but he paid them no mind. He was totally
focused on his agenda. That's what Yar'Adua ought to be
doing rather than pursuing a policy of appeasement of
the opposition. He has only a window of opportunity to
win the hearts and minds of Nigerians before he loses
their goodwill. Goodwill is a fragile commodity in
politics, and once lost, is almost impossible to
recover.
The only way to do that is to take a page from the
playbook of former illegal governor of Anambra state,
Chris Ngige. While candidate Peter Obi of APGA was dug
in at the tribunal challenging his election, Chris Ngige
moved quickly and took maximum advantage of the window
of opportunity open to him to endear himself to his
people and embarked on massive development projects at
break neck speed. And the results? In a short time the
people who were shouting "Crucify him" only a few months
back, were now crying: "Hossanah Ngige is the Highest!"
for Governor Chris Ngige!
Yar'Adua should take a cue from that rather than
prostrating before Buhari and Atiku and neglecting the
people's business. Delay is dangerous. He must increase
the pace of governance and deliver on his grand
declarations now, for, time waits for no one!
I say this straight from the heart, but I would say no
more: A word is enough for the wise!
May God speed our new President to increase the pace of
governance.
Franklin Otorofani is a Nigerian Attorney based in US
contact: mudiagaone@yahoo.com
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